RECENT developments, particularly in Asia, have altered our                                                                                           
view of the dynamics of change. The baht crisis of July                                                                                               
1,1997, reverberated throughout the Asian region, causing                                                                                             
currency devaluations in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the                                                                                              
Philippines, Singapore and elsewhere, and triggering a decline                                                                                        
in the equity markets of the region.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                      
The aftermath is the suddenness, depth and reach of the                                                                                               
economic downturn, characterized by the failure of financial                                                                                          
institutions, corporate collapses, bankruptcies, IMF                                                                                                  
intervention, rising interest rates, inflation and                                                                                                    
unemployment and the spread of social and political unrest.                                                                                           
Overnight, euphoria turned to panic and all corporate                                                                                                 
projections were nullified by the abrupt change of                                                                                                    
assumptions.                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                      
What is the management lesson that can be drawn from change                                                                                           
turbulence and uncertainty?                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
Modern management, which began with Frederick Taylor in 1897,                                                                                         
examined management in the context of a stable world                                                                                                  
characterised by predictability and a measure of certainty.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
Managing such a world was relatively easy and the traditional                                                                                         
style of command through a pyramidal structure was                                                                                                    
sufficiently effective to produce results. The focus was on                                                                                           
structure and systems in the expectation that each member of                                                                                          
the organization will be able to contribute to its purpose                                                                                            
through a clearly-defined scope of work.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                      
The organization created was based on division of labour in                                                                                           
accordance with increasingly narrowing specialization of work.                                                                                        
To reap economies of scale, organisations tended to increase                                                                                          
in size and work processes moved through increasingly                                                                                                 
complicated assemblyline type operations.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                      
In a rapidly changing world with demands for short cycle                                                                                              
times, short product lives, fast-changing tastes and consumer                                                                                         
customization as the norm, management has to respond faster to                                                                                        
the market in order to be competitive.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                      
The behemoth organisation of stable times simply cannot                                                                                               
respond fast enough and produce products and services at                                                                                              
competitive costs.                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                      
For the last decade of the 20th century, the management call                                                                                          
has been for downsizing, decentralising, transforming the                                                                                             
organisation from pyramids to clusters and, generally,                                                                                                
flattening it so that the chain of command is drastically                                                                                             
reduced. Much of the impact has been on removing mid-level                                                                                            
management.                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
The drive towards global competitiveness is a continuing                                                                                              
challenge for management. Rigid structures and systems are                                                                                            
giving way to empowerment through multi-skilling as the labour                                                                                        
force becomes more literate, knowledgeable and assertive.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                      
The job of management has moved from one of getting work done                                                                                         
through others to one of developing people through work.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                      
There is now enough accumulated data to suggest that the                                                                                              
future will see a stronger momentum towards global                                                                                                    
accessibility, more level playing fields, higher consumer                                                                                             
expectations and a more demanding workforce. The task of                                                                                              
management is to recognise emerging trends, reengineer to                                                                                             
exploit their potential and put into action strategic and                                                                                             
tactical plans to realise the new opportunities.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                      
Emerging scenario                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                      
It has been noted that the rate of change over the last 50                                                                                            
years outstripped all the- change that had taken place before.                                                                                        
Much of the change is related to technological development,                                                                                           
but it is also attributed to economic, social and                                                                                                     
organisational movements.                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                      
Technological: The most dramatic change is in information                                                                                             
technology (IT) brought about by the convergence of separate                                                                                          
technologies of computing, communication and entertainment.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
The result is a digital world that has connected the globe                                                                                            
through the Internet, Intranets and Extranets, with e-mail as                                                                                         
the communication medium and e-commerce as the new frontier                                                                                           
for marketing products and services.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                      
As technology moves from atoms to bits, from terrestrial space                                                                                        
to cyberspace and from hardware to software, tomorrow's world                                                                                         
will shrink even more in space and time.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                      
The outpouring of information unrestricted and uncensored,                                                                                            
Pill create an information-based world, in which an outcome                                                                                           
for management will be the challenge of man- aging                                                                                                    
knowledge-driven work.                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                      
Other developments in technology will be in the field of                                                                                              
mechanisation and automation, in particular miniaturisation                                                                                           
and robotisation. Recording and transmitting devices will be                                                                                          
more compact, smaller and lighter; communication gadgets will                                                                                         
be multi-functional; robots will mimic the functions of humans                                                                                        
with incredible performance. They will serve Man and can,                                                                                             
indeed, contribute to higher productivity and work output.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                      
Economic: Much has been written about the borderless economy                                                                                          
as markets are globalised and companies trade across national                                                                                         
boundaries.                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
As trade barriers are reduced in preparation for the World                                                                                            
Trade Organisation, the term "competitiveness" takes on a new                                                                               
meaning with corporate performance being measured by                                                                                                  
international benchmarks.                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                      
In the absence of local protection, a company not measuring up                                                                                        
to international standards of performance will lose out.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                      
The current Asian economic crisis illustrates just how                                                                                                
interconnected the world has become.  Because of the global                                                                                           
nature of financial systems, vast currency movements as well                                                                                          
as international investments in equity markets can be                                                                                                 
transacted across borders in real time, with an almost                                                                                                
immediate impact on local currencies and stocks and shares.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
One economic movement is for nations and companies to seek                                                                                            
higher value output through the shifting of the economic base                                                                                         
of their activities.                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                      
Agriculture-based economies will tend to move upwards into                                                                                            
basic manufacturing, then into higher-end technology and                                                                                              
service, and into world-class innovations.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                      
Increasingly, the wealth of nations is not so much measured in                                                                                        
terms of its output of physical goods as by its output of                                                                                             
intellectual property. Some estimates, for example, have                                                                                              
assessed the contribution of intellectual property of the                                                                                             
United States, the world's wealthiest nation, at 30%.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                      
Likewise, Microsoft has been able to amass enormous wealth in                                                                                         
such a short life cycle because of its intellectual prowess                                                                                           
for creating state-of-the-art software and to deliver these                                                                                           
immediately across the globe.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                      
Historically, goods are produced as standardized products with                                                                                        
few variations, all justified by economies of scale. The                                                                                              
assembly line was the manufacturing process that made                                                                                                 
standardization possible.                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                      
With advancing technology and more discriminating consumer                                                                                            
tastes, the future will see increasing customization of                                                                                               
products and services. It is even conceivable that there will                                                                                         
be companies that can cater to the market of one.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                      
One aspect of economics that will trouble the conscience of                                                                                           
nations and companies is resource scarcity and the need to                                                                                            
preserve our planet. Issues of environmental protection,                                                                                              
control of pollution, deforestation and the overall concern                                                                                           
over global warming as the result of ozone depletion are                                                                                              
attracting strong advocates to maintain and enhance the                                                                                               
national habitat.                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                      
Consumer activists, environmental groups and Greenpeace can                                                                                           
exert a strong influence on government and corporate policies.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                      
Social: Changes in technology and in economics have greatly                                                                                           
influenced society. The global village has brought people                                                                                             
closer as time and space become blurred. It would suggest that                                                                                        
a more global social order would replace separate identities.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                      
The closest movement towards a more universal identity is                                                                                             
constituted by the younger generation euphemistically referred                                                                                        
to as Generation X. Born and bred into the new age of instant                                                                                         
communication and global entertainment, fast food and branded                                                                                         
products, the young of today are beginning to speak a                                                                                                 
universal language, think alike and behave in common,                                                                                                 
imitative ways.                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                      
Some of the common traits are the emphasis on self, the                                                                                               
individual, as opposed to the collective body, the focus on                                                                                           
more immediate gratification rather than on investment for the                                                                                        
longer term, and materialism as the key success indicator.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                      
As materialism is on the ascendancy, the social bonds that                                                                                            
have made for a cohesive society begin to fracture. Many                                                                                              
societies have borne witness to the erosion of old values to                                                                                          
be replaced by new values and, in some situations, by a                                                                                               
retreat to fundamentalism as a response to the growing tide of                                                                                        
materialism.                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                      
Another manifestation of the tension is the increased values                                                                                          
and social diversity that have been produced.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                      
A victim of the social trauma is the breakdown of traditional                                                                                         
institutions of marriage, family, child upbringing and the                                                                                            
three-generation family. Divorce rates are high the size of                                                                                           
families is small, children are looked after by third parties                                                                                         
and old parents are on their own or in old folk's homes.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                      
As a consequence of low birth rates and high life-expectancy,                                                                                         
not only are some countries suffering from a declining                                                                                                
population (e.g.  Germany) but, more acutely, an ageing                                                                                               
population (e.g. Japan).