AS the 20th century draws to a close, what the future has in                                                                                          
store for us has suddenly become a serious concern to                                                                                                 
businesses and organisations.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                      
Partly out of fear and partly out of uncertainty and                                                                                                  
ignorance, the problem of trying to shape that future has not                                                                                         
been completely addressed. One hears, of course, about the big                                                                                        
multinationals holding their Quest 2000 Conventions and their                                                                                         
Future Thinkins. But generally management would prefer to wait                                                                                        
and see.                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                      
The message, however, has come out loud and clear. Figure, for                                                                                        
instance, the number of books that have been written about the                                                                                        
future.  As early as the 1980s, Naisbitt came out with his                                                                                            
Megatrends to be followed 10 years later with Megatrends 2000.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                      
Earlier, others have published similar works that set the                                                                                             
trend for thinking about the future in a big way, including                                                                                           
Toffler with his trilogy-Future Shock, Power Shift and Third                                                                                          
Wave. The impact of these books on our consciousness about the                                                                                        
future has been tremendous.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
Suddenly, the figure 2000 became serious business in the                                                                                              
management world. A spinoff from this has been the book by                                                                                            
Davis and Davidson, 2020 Vision published in 1991. Malaysia's                                                                                         
contribution to this yet-to-finish journey is its Vision 2020.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                      
As enunciatedin the document Malaysia-The Way Forward, the                                                                                            
focus is economic development. Policies will be geared towards                                                                                        
encouraging further economic development and enhancing                                                                                                
Malaysia's competitiveness in international markets. It was                                                                                           
quoted that in its relationship with the outside world,                                                                                               
Malaysia will seek greater liberalisation of trade.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                      
In Malaysia's vision 2020, which is a design for reaching out                                                                                         
into the future, we can see a convergence of views with what                                                                                          
has been propagated by Dr Gary Hamel and partner C.K.Prahalad.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                      
They have focused on how companies should prepare for the                                                                                             
future by first imagining the future. This can then be                                                                                                
followed by defining the core competencies (resources) or                                                                                             
fundamental skills (sources of strength) that go into products                                                                                        
and services (GDP and economic growth). Stress is also placed                                                                                         
on developing the competencies in order to build new                                                                                                  
opportunities                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                      
Recently, international relations theorist Prof James N.                                                                                              
Rosenau who gave an address on Global Politics in the 21st                                                                                            
century - Problems and Prospects, characterised the future as                                                                                         
a turbulent one. The main elements are: the organisational                                                                                            
explosion, the dispersion of governance, globalisation of                                                                                             
norms, decentralisation of global life and the skills                                                                                                 
revolution.                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
The picture is not a happy one. It is no wonder that people                                                                                           
shudder when they think about the future. Foremost in their                                                                                           
minds must be the issue of how to cope with the changes that                                                                                          
are taking place. It should be noted also that these changes                                                                                          
are occurring at breakneck speed.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                      
This means that whatever one is able to plan today may not                                                                                            
necessarily apply tomorrow. Hence, when we plan for the                                                                                               
future, we must be prepared to regress a little. Perhaps we                                                                                           
should use the best of the past that is still around today and                                                                                        
applicable to a future tomorrow.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                      
We would also have to take heed of the generation that is                                                                                             
going to come after us. What are their habits and their                                                                                               
concerns? Arising from the skills revolution, for example, the                                                                                        
future generations will be in possession of greater skills                                                                                            
than us and will have access to technology in a much bigger                                                                                           
way.                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                      
Dr Henry Kissinger allauded to this in his address in Kuala                                                                                           
Lumpur last November. His remarks naturally were made in the                                                                                          
context of giving advice to government policy-makers. But I                                                                                           
feel that what he said is also useful in a business context,                                                                                          
especially in a strategic planning sense.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                      
He said: "There is a difference between the generation that                                                                                      
grows up on books and the generation that grows up on                                                                                                 
television. When you are brought up on books, you develop                                                                                             
concepts. When you are brought up on television, you develop                                                                                          
impressions. When you are brought up on books you have to                                                                                             
emphasise the relations of events to each other. When you are                                                                                         
brought up on television, you respond to stimuli."                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                      
The last few words certainly have a bearing on how we are                                                                                             
going to get people to change for a better future. What                                                                                               
follows are some suggestions for conducting strategic planning                                                                                        
for the future.                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                      
In general, to assist in strategic thinking, a company would                                                                                          
need to ask the following key questions:                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                      
Which products or services will get more or less emphasis in                                                                                          
the future?                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
Which users or customers will receive or not receive these                                                                                            
products and services?                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                      
Which market segments will we pursue or not pursue?                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                      
Which geographic markets will we seek or not seek?                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                      
Having found answers to the above questions, the company can                                                                                          
then begin the process of planning the strategy the future.                                                                                           
Then the following set of questions will have to be asked:                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                      
Do I have the capability to create value for the customer?                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                      
Do I have a uniqueness or distinctiveness in what I do?                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                      
is what I do sustainable and difficult to copy?                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                      
What is my ability to build on my core competency and to                                                                                              
create new competencies that would help me build a path to the                                                                                        
future?                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                      
To round off this exercise of thinking about the future and                                                                                           
how to go about it, I recommend that companies set about it by                                                                                        
organising brainstorming sessions. In keeping with the times,                                                                                         
we should use the technique of enhanced brainstorming. This                                                                                           
would include such steps as setting the stage by defining the                                                                                         
objective. Next, follow it up by warming up the group with                                                                                            
mind-mapping sessions.                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                      
Alternatively, we could begin by letting the individual                                                                                               
participants mindmap their ideas on paper. Once in a while we                                                                                         
would need to break up into small groups. After this, the                                                                                             
ideas can be combined and consolidated. One prerequisite for                                                                                          
all of the above processes must be to keep a record of the                                                                                            
ideas expressed in the enhanced brainstorming sessions.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                      
As can be seen, the format to be used throughout these                                                                                                
sessions would be the mind-mapping format.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                      
Techniques that would be relevant would include that of using                                                                                         
brainstorming cards, to allow for the recording of ideas on                                                                                           
cards and exchanging the cards with members of the group. The                                                                                         
idea is to stimulate other ideas based on the single idea                                                                                             
recorded by the individuals.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                      
The next is called "clustering" which calls for moving and                                                                                  
grouping the ideas recorded based on common characteristics                                                                                           
and themes.                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                      
Finally, we may want to employ the "future wheels" technique.                                                                               
This involves putting a central idea on the board for                                                                                                 
everybody to bounce off other ideas from the ideas of others.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                      
It must be noted, however, that all of the above can be used                                                                                          
effectively in an enhanced brainstorming session. The                                                                                                 
facilitator is at liberty to introduce them when necessary                                                                                            
throughout a particular session.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                      
By way of ending this introduction on how to begin our journey                                                                                        
into the future, let me quote from the July issue of the World                                                                                        
Executive's Digest.                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                      
In an article titled The future - there is only one clear path                                                                                        
to it, the writer says: "Back in 1992, when we sent a fax to                                                                                     
Lee Kun Hee, chairman of Samsung, inviting him to nominate a                                                                                          
favourite book, his reply came back quickly. 'Try to read the                                                                                         
future - company, nation, mankind-through books on technology                                                                                         
and management'.                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                      
"Lee's statement crystallises the relationship between                                                                                           
managers and the future. People with general interests may                                                                                            
have the luxury of wondering what the future might bring. But                                                                                         
for managers, the future can never be too abstract or too far                                                                                         
away. It is an event to plan for, to be part of, to create."                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                      
Good luck to the managers of the future.