By SUNDEEP WASLEKAR

I AM the CEO of a large corporation. I have to decide about
moving or deploying a few hundred million dollars. If I am in
stocks and bonds, I will look for short-term signals from
markets. If I am serious about long-term safety and returns, I
must see forces outside the market.

It does not really matter whether I am in insurance,
manufacturing of goods, export of computer hardware, tourism,
mining or pharmaceuticals. If large amount of funds are at
stake, I will ask myself the following 10 questions about how
the world will shape in the next 10 years.

·Will a future President of the United States announce a radical
policy shift to bring energy efficiency in that country up by
30% or to the level of Western Europe?

·Will Ayatollah Rafsanjani succeed Ayatollah Khamenei as the
Supreme Leader of Iran?

·Will the Gulf States switch from treasury bills, bonds and
resorts to large-scale manufacturing, research and development
and a united Arab social sector?

·Will India introduce internal market reforms in agriculture and
find ways to sustain ecologically its industrial growth?

·Will those handling nanotechnology succeed in developing cures
before those trying to steal the technology develop pathogens
that destroy the mankind?

·Will the South-East Asian countries continue to be able to
protect the Straits of Malacca from capture by any international
terrorist network?

·Will Europe rewrite its industrial relations laws and
successfully integrate migrant workers in its society and Turkey
in its political union?

·Will the price of intermediate goods like steel ever overtake
the price rise in raw materials like iron ore?

·Will the post-Putin Russia have harmonious relations with the
West?

·Will the future of God be bleaker than it appears now?

If the answer to all or most of the questions is "yes", I will
be aggressive in my expansion strategy. If the answer to most of
the questions is "no", I will go the stock market or maybe the
commodity markets.

We live in uncertain times. The good old times are over when we
merely had to worry about our competitors from the industry. Now
we must watch out for new products outside the industry, new
technologies and new sectors.

In order to understand these unexpected challenges, we must know
societal trends, geopolitical changes and environmental factors.

One 9/11 can get the aviation industry grounded. One tsunami can
deliver a blow to insurers. One successful challenge in India,
China, Iran, Nigeria, and France to vested interest groups and a
new world of opportunity will surface all over the globe.

How can one interpret the developments that are going to take
place in the next 10 or 20 years?

How can one see what is unseen?

How can one move factors of production, especially people, when
life is uncertain?

Let's remind ourselves of the world in 1986 before we can
structure scenarios for the world in 2026.

Who would have guessed then that the Berlin Wall would collapse
and the axis of conflict would shift from ideology to religion?

Who would have guessed then that transportation and
communication would be affordable to an average person in Asia
despite high cost of energy input?

Who would have guessed then that Internet and text messages
would send fax machines to the museums?

Who would have guessed then that China would replace Japan as
the emerging super power?

And who would have guessed then that centres of excellence would
come up in the world that could look into the future in a
scientific way that could actually make projection of
uncertainties feasible?

It is now possible to use techniques such as scenario building,
discontinuity analysis and others to make confident projections
about the future.

In 2002 and 2003, Strategic Foresight Group projected the fall
of the government in Kyrgyzstan, success of conservatives in
Iran, price band of oil, replacement of Pakistan's prime
minister, among other developments in its various reports. By
2006, all of this has happened.

As the CEO of a large corporation, I do need the traditional
management consultancy firm to advise me on project management,
diversification, evaluation of buy outs and cost reduction, once
I have determined where, when and how to move my resources.

I need specialised advice in geopolitical, societal, demographic
and environmental risks and opportunities before I make the
basic decision about what to do with my resources, my people and
my own future.

If I am a follower, I would like to be able to anticipate a
global future.

If I am a leader, I would like to make strategic alliances,
influence policies and shape the global future.

In either case, I need to know how to manage global challenges
much more than I need to know how to manage my industry
competition.

It is amazing that today tools for acquiring such capacity are
available. I must decide whether I wish to walk that extra mile
to obtain them and craft a new future for my company.

o Sundeep Waslekar is president of Strategic Foresight Group. He
will be in Malaysia on June 27 and June 28 2006 to head the
inaugural Global Exchange Experience jointly organised by
Malaysian Institute of Management (MIM) and Urban Forum in
celebration of MIM's 40th Anniversary of delivering management
excellence. For more information please visit
www.urban-forum.com or www.mim.org.my; e-mail
malaysia@urban-forum.com or inquiries@mim.org.my.
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